Udi & Mudi's Excellent Adventure

I'm not sure if Mahmoud Abbas has the nickname "Mudi," but it made for a nice alliterative blog entry title.

So now comes the long-anticipated Annapolis peace gathering (downgraded from "conference" a few weeks ago). With the Arab League now formally on board, and with delegations coming at the very least at the Foreign Minister level (except for the Israelis and Palestinians, who are being represented by weak heads-of-state, and the Syrians, who are coming with merely a deputy FM), the stage is set for a one-day gathering, where it is hoped that the Israelis and Palestinians will issue a joint statement ensuring the commencement of a negotiating modality for 2008. Even that limited outcome is in doubt, with the probability of no more than separate statements -- either result will mean hard slogging for the year to come. If a joint statement can be reached, call the gathering a stunning -- if incremental -- victory.

It is hard to imagine that this gathering will produce any breakthroughs, unless the American team puts forth some compromise "creative ideas" to broach the gulf which separates the two sides. The Israelis are arriving with a slightly split delegation, with Ehud Olmert ("Udi") issuing rosy proclamations of settling the problem by the end of 2008, and with FM Tzipi Livny and Defense Minister Ehud Barak expressing a less enthusiastic approach. The Arab League delegates come armed with the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 (a relative non-starter), and the Americans cling to the dilapidated Quartet Roadmap of 2003. The West Bank Palestinians arrive asking for a discussion of "the core issues" (Settlements, Jerusalem, and Right of Return), and the Israelis come to the table with no specific proposal but rather with a list of prior unfulfilled demands concerning their security, and simultaneously crippled by a pending decision from the Israeli police over ongoing corruption investigations against Olmert. Hamas in Gaza is not invited and so issues defiant rhetoric (and short range rockets upon Israel), necessitating a security clampdown in Jerusalem and the occupied territories.

Somewhat reminiscent of the 3-day Madrid peace conference sponsored jointly by US and Russia back in September, 1991, the Annapolis gathering cannot possibly result in a breakthrough, but it can conceivably lay the groundwork for future diplomacy, and for further under-the-radar improvements in Israel's diplomatic standing with moderate Arab Gulf states. After all, the Madrid conference (after the Israeli team was shuffled from Likud to Labor) indirectly led to an almost successful resolution of the Syrian-Israeli dispute, and to the ultimately failed Oslo peace process.

In the case of Annapolis, we must hope for a similar reshuffling of the deck. Olmert and West Bank leader Mahmoud Abbas are both sitting upon shaky seats, and neither can deliver their constituency for broad compromises. The incompetence of the Bush administration in the Middle East is now legendary. Last week's Economist hopes that Mr. Bush will issue a kind of clarion call which will indicate a willingness to break the logjam; but domestic politics (in the form of presidential primaries just 6 weeks away) plays a factor in just how far Mr. Bush can go without crippling a tough-as-nails Republican front runner.

So with an important meeting of donor countries set for December, the Palestinians must appear willing (and they are) to sit and listen. The Israelis for their part can hardly ignore an invitation issued by Washington, though they can subsequently resist pressure from a crippled lame-duck American administration. The modest surprise in all this is the participation of the Arab League states. My bet? Look years from now at this gathering in Maryland as a catalyst for Syrian-Israeli negotiations -- but do not expect a similar retrospective result for the Israeli-Palestinian track. Too many variables -- not the least the fractured nature of the respective Israeli, Palestinian and American ruling elites -- make true progress possible. Until the rift between Gaza and the West Bank is resolved one way or the other (and no doubt, the Annapolis meeting is designed to strengthen the West Bankers over the Gazans), and until new leaders are installed in Israel and the US, the chances for resolution in 2008 seem dim indeed.

Update, Nov. 29: Nothing truly important happened. We will have to credit a victory to George Bush and Condoleeza Rice for actually producing a joint statement from the Israelis and Palestinians (though Abbas refused to sign on until only 8 minutes before the triumvirate went onstage before cameras). Other than that, my pre-summit predictions penned above still stands.

What happened September 6th?

Well, here it is. Do you see it? This is the building -- now no longer in existence -- at latitude 35° 42' 31.02" N; longitude 39° 49' 58.50" E, not far from at-Tibnah, Syria. This is the site which was supposedly hit by Israeli jets on September 6th. Initially the garbled reports relegated the incident to some kind of exploratory overflight as the Israelis tried to find lanes for a possible attack on Iran. Then it was reported to be an actual target, maybe a missile facility. Now it is a nuclear facility? Was it a nuclear weapons plant or reactor in the making? We'll never know for sure, because the Syrians have bulldozed over it. Certainly in this picture there is little to confirm the worst suspicions. Your guess is as good as mine. One thing we know is that satellite photos often reveal as much as they conceal. Remember the WMD sites touted by Colin Powell?

On the other hand, no need to guess about this picture. Here is Israel's Dimona reactor, built way back in the 1950s with France's assistance. It has been on-line since the early 60's and has produced so much fissionable material that it is estimates tht Israel possesses at least 70, and as many as 400, nuclear weapons.

American Bollywood: Across the Universe

Clocking in at just over 2 hours, Julie Taymor's Across the Universe is not unlike good Bollywood. It has an international, compelling. and emotional story (a good part of the story takes place in England, a site of many a Bollywood flick). The visualizations of the more than 30 songs (far more than in a typical Bollywood movie) is largely commendable, though sometimes forced. Early on, there are some highly innovative and stupendous samples of cinematic choreography (in a bowling alley, and a Princeton dining club), but towards the end there is some poor use of blue-screening and digital effects. The movie ends abruptly, which means I would have been happy to take in a third hour. The music is nicely recorded, combining soundstage and on-site 5.1 recordings, and as far as I can tell (see this highly technical article), there was no playback singing. The interpretations of the Beatles' music is solid and artful. Whether studio recorded or live action, the players do a fine job with some tremendous lyrics and arrangements. Not since Baz Luhrman's Moulin Rouge (2001) has a mainstream American movie toyed with the Bollywood format of love story/music/dance/politics so successfully. Across the Universe - chock full of songs you already know and love - is worth the $10, or the $25 it will cost to get the DVD on February 5, 2008.

Fantasy League

This past Sunday, the Israel Baseball League (IBL) inaugurated its first 45-game season, 6 teams playing on 3 fields. With a roster of 120 players (only 20 native-born sabras), the league is overseen by a group of American Jews who are hoping to create a new national pastime that will eventually reach beyond the initial North American immigrant fan base. Former major leaguers occupy many of the coaching and league front-office roles. Ken Holtzman (former Cubs, Oakland, Orioles & Yankees), Art Shamsky (Mets, Oakland, Cubs), and Ron Blomberg (Yankees & White Sox) are coaching, and Don Duquette (former GM of the Red Sox) is Director of baseball operations.

But this of course is baseball Israel style. Attendees reported awfully long waits at the concession stands. On-line ticket ordering is disorganized. The Hebrew web site has many broken links. There is still no useful Hebrew term for a double play: pesilah kefulah, and the Hebrew-English on-line lexicon doesn't have a phrase for a ground rule double. Already the coming week's games slotted for the Sportek stadium in Tel Aviv have been postponed or moved to the Yarkon park (due to poor field conditions at Sportek), and games are being rescheduled haphazardly at the two working fields. When week one is hardly begun, and half the week's schedule is TBA, there is no joy in Israeli Mudville.

Kudos for trying, and who knows? Maybe it will work. The Israeli game is designed for entertainment -- the DH, 7-inning games, ties after 7 innings decided by a home run derby -- so there is a real chance that ADD Israelis will find comfort in all the hyped-up action. Over 3000 fans came to the opener in which the Modi'in Miracle crushed the Petah Tikvah Pioneers 9-1. My buddy Yoav (who wishes he was American) watched the first live game broadcast on the Israeli Sports Channel, and still will never understand the double-switch (because the IBL uses the designated hitter -- in Hebrew: hovet memuneh). But I've decided to throw my support to the Tel Aviv Lightning, which won their first game, coached by Steve Hertz, who appeared in 5 major league games in 1964 for the Houston Colt .45s (now the Astros). I've already ordered my team T-shirt and baseball cap -- we'll see how long it takes for the merchandise to arrive.

Erik, I see a future for you on the Pioneers -- they need pitchers!

No Window of Opportunity

As a colorful sun-drenched summit is held today in Sharm al-Sheikh between what's left of the Palestinian Authority and Egypt, Jordan, and Israel; and as the Bush White House floats the idea of appointing soon-to-be British Labour MP Tony Blair as Special Envoy to the Middle East, there is much rose-colored talk of the "new opportunities" for peace in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Now that the initial dust has settled from the lightning-quick seizure of Gaza by HAMAS, and the Israeli cabinet decided to begin releasing the over $500 million in escrowed tax revenues to ex-World Bank technocrat Salam Fayyad (now the West Bank's newly crowned Prime Minister), the naive hope that a "window of opportunity" might emerge is widely discussed in the western press. However, there are powerful reasons to believe that nothing good will come from these developments anytime soon. Let me explain:

The combination of an accidental Israeli Prime Minister, an accidental Palestinian President, and a lame-duck American President argues for a "no forward motion" scenario.

1. The accidental Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who fell into his role when his historic predecessor became a vegetable in January 2006, is overseeing a weak Israeli government teetering on collapse. Olmert barely survived the initial shitstorm that ensued after the Winograd Commission issued its interim report on last summer's Lebanon War -- it is unlikely that Olmert will survive when the final report is issued later this summer. The new Defense Minister Ehud Barak has all but pledged to withdraw Labour from the governing coalition when the final report comes out -- and then expect at the very least a 4-month election campaign, which essentially freezes Israel from making any substantial offers or deals. Israel will soon be enveloped in electoral politics, and no forward movement can therefore be expected from Israel.

2. The accidental Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who fell into his role when his historic predecessor died in November 2004, is overseeing a weak Palestinian government teetering on collapse. Abbas barely survived the initial shitstorm that ensued after his Fatah movement was defeated in Palestinian legislative elections in January 2006 -- it is unlikely that Abbas will survive in the West Bank now that HAMAS has laid down an "in your face" challenge. Abbas is now held hostage by the delicate balancing act he must strike between accepting Israeli and American support, and still acting defiantly as the defender of the Palestinian cause. If he looks too much like an Israeli collaborator, his support in the West Bank will crumble; if he follows his predecessor's script, any defiant call for "jihad unto Jerusalem" will undermine his cozying up to Israel and the US. If his weak Israeli counterpart cannot deliver a significant "victory" (a freezing of settlements, a release of Palestinian prisoners, a reduction of Israeli security presence in the West Bank -- all unlikely for reason 1 cited above), Abbas and Fayyad will be gone in short order. (Update: A few hours after writing this blog entry, Olmert announced at Sharm plans to bring before a cabinet vote on Sunday the release of 250 Fatah prisoners -- a move which Israel Channel One's Arab affairs correspondent characterized as: "too little, too late.") Even the notion that Israel might release prisoner Marwan Barghouti, the much-lauded next-generation leader of Palestine who languishes in an Israeli jail, is full of potential threat to Abbas and the elder generation of his advisers. Abbas is in the uncomfortable situation of being the recipient of Israeli and American largesse -- an untenable role for any Palestinian leader.

3. The lame-duck American President George Bush, who squandered his role as Commander-in-Chief with his failed conquest of the Arab heartland, is overseeing a weak American government running out of time. Once the American election campaign begins in earnest (approximately just after a new Israeli government is formed), Bush will lose all credibility as a broker of any Arab-Israeli deal. Lame-duck President Clinton had little credibility in the 2000 effort to bring a resolution of the conflict (and that was when it looked likely that a democratic successor would continue his policies) -- by the time the chad-dust had settled on the November, 2000 election, Clinton was a goner, and neither side respected his stature. Defiance of a lame-duck American President is standard operating procedure for Mideast leaders. With the prospects of a change in party affiliation in the White House in 2009, expect Bush to be progressively ignored as election day 2008 nears.

So forget about it. In fact, there is much reason to believe that the Fatah/HAMAS face-off is far from over. Much of the most notorious bloodletting in Gaza was nothing more than revenge killing -- HAMAS never forgot nor forgave the brutality of despised Fatah security head Muhammad Dahlan's violent and short-lived campaign in 1996 to decimate HAMAS in Gaza. Emboldened HAMAS dreams of much greater things than sinple revenge. Like the murderous bloodshed between the Husseini and Nashshashibi clans in the fight for leadership of the Palestinian cause in the 1930s, this struggle between Fatah and HAMAS is far from concluded. HAMAS won many legislative seats in the West Bank in 2006, and it is only because Israel has imprisoned most of HAMAS's leadership in the West Bank that Fatah has even a chance of surviving. Back in the 1930s, the Husseini family cloaked itself in Islam and eventually won the day to disastrous results for the Palestinian people; expect the irresistible call of Islam to eventually succeed yet again in modern Palestine for HAMAS, if for no other reason than that the Israelis can not muster the will to do what needs to be done to make Abbas successful and look like an effective leader.