Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Florida Jews Update

The Quinnipiac Polling Institute issued another poll (taken Oct. 22-26) for Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Florida remains "too close to call," and the poll reportedly produces a 75-20 pro-Obama split amongst Florida's Jews (though for the life of me I don't see the data in their press release). In any event, maybe all the anti-Obama efforts amongst Jewish voters is paying off, because this whopping 75-20 lead is nevertheless a 2 point drop in Obama's performance amongst FL Jews as compared to last week. Sure, this is well within the margin of error. But I am hoping for a dramatic Election Night full of entertainment and nail-biting. I will be bitterly disappointed if this election ends in an electoral landslide and is over before midnight. Give me my infotainment! I wanna see dueling network projections! Let's see Sean Hannity twitching, Rachel Maddow sputtering! Sadly, we won't have Tim Russert's low-tech white board this time around.

Update, 2pm: It looks like the race is truly tightening. Both Rasmussen and Gallup show that Obama's October lead is beginning to dry up. Obama doesn't seem to be able to cross above 50%, and McCain keeps creeping up. The race might be an electoral blow-out for Obama even as the national balloting is close, but there is so much "wrong" in the models being used by pollsters (no one knows what the turnout will be, no one knows how many voters are outright dissembling to pollsters, no one knows how to model first-time voters) that I am prepared psychologically for any outcome.

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