The Washington Post-ABC tracking poll reports American Jews as breaking 70-29 for Obama. This result is much closer to the outcome I expect, certainly lower than the recent national Gallup & Florida Quinnipiac numbers, which reported Obama at the mid-to-upper 70's with Jews. Remember -- Kerry got 76% in 2004; Dukakis in 1988 got 64%. My buddy Silk thinks Obama will hit 70; I think Obama is going to do worse than that.
Here's a theory: if any white demographic group will manifest the "Bradley effect," it will be the Jews. Jews are liberal and subject to guilt and insecurity; certainly if there are Jews who are going to be peeled away from their traditional Democratic home, there may be a hesitancy to announce aloud to a pollster, even an exit pollster, a renunciation of long-held political views because of the list of troubling stories -- many of them manufactured -- which dog the Obama narrative and "Jewish issues."