Wednesday, October 24, 2012

US Elections: Two Weeks Out

So every morning, like many of you, I wake up to scour RealClearPolitics and Fivethirtyeight. And what I have tried to figure out (because I am trying to handicap my bet) is who will win. I'm going with a simple formula: if Nate Silver determines that one candidate has a 70% chance or better to win a given state, I credit that state to the candidate. So as of this morning, my methodology gives 271 electoral college votes to Obama vs. 206 electoral college votes for Romney, with 61 votes too close to call.
But two big changes are in the offing: Ohio is about to slip below 70% likelihood for Obama; and Florida, which I currently list as toss-up, is poised to go above 70% for Romney. The first change turns the election back into a toss-up; the second merely closes the gap for Romney.
Admittedly, the 70% threshold is an advantageous and generous one for either candidate. But I am looking for certainty, not prophecy.

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