Wednesday, November 07, 2012

Wrong, Wrong, & Right

Well, for the second time in my history of blogging I got a US presidential election all wrong.
On the one hand, I was correct in stating that re-elected President Barack Obama would underperform his 2008 numbers. But it didn't take a rocket scientist to see that was coming. Instead of winning 52.9-45.7 in the raw vote, Obama won by 50.3-48.2. Instead of winning 365 electoral votes, Obama looks like he will win 333-206. This was the outcome I said would be amazing - the best outcome Obama might have expected - losing only 2 states (Indiana & North Carolina). Even in my most charitable prognostication, I had it at Obama 283-255, but I was actually betting on a Romney win.
So wrong & wrong. But not nearly as wrong as all the Republican pollsters and pundits, from Michael Barone to Trinity alum George Will to Dick Morris (and the list goes on) who had Romney winning with +300 electoral votes. The only truly riveting election coverage last night was over on FoxNews as "poor" Karl Rove had a tantrum on camera after Ohio was called. Imagine if Rove had a meltdown on camera how "poor" Sheldon Adelson must have felt.
I did venture a guess on the US Jewish vote, which constituted a mere 2% of the national electorate. I guessed there would be a slight down tick from Obama's 2008 performance of - depending who you ask - 76-78% of the Jewish vote, which was historically quite high. I predicted for 2012 72%. The national exit poll has it at 69-70%. This is a relatively low number, on par with Carter-Ford in 1976 (yes, there once was a time that Jews loved Jimmy Carter), and slightly better than Mondale-Reagan in 1984 (67-31). The Romney strategy of calling into question Obama's pro-Israel credibility had some effect. More on that later...
Already, one of my far-away whiskey betting buddies has magnanimously offered to exchange his bottle for a donation to a worthy cause of his choosing. The banter of the bet was fun, and I am happy to make the donation.
I hope Obama can be a better President his second term.

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