Tuesday, November 01, 2016

One Week Out - The Tightening

This has been a strange election. Wouldn't it end perfectly if Nate Silver, who got 49 out of 50 states right in 2008, and 50 out of 50 right in 2012, turns out to be all wrong this time, missing 4 or 5 states?

Using my simple 70% yardstick from fivethirtyeight.com's electoral map, nothing has changed from last week to this week. We're still at 272-179 with 87 battleground electoral votes. But the tightening trend places both CO (75.4% Clinton) and NH (72.7% Clinton) on the cusp of being reclassified as battleground.

Let's take a look at the current 80% map:

Compared to the 80% map from 2 weeks ago, Clinton has "lost" a number of states: CO, WI, PA, and NH. Trump has lost UT. Odds remain good that none of these states are "lost" - I am just showing what the floor for each candidate is likely to be. And it also gives a sense of where the final week's ad buys and candidate appearances ought to be.

Two weeks ago, I predicted 305-233. I am going to stick with that, though such an outcome might be the best the Democrats can hope for.

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