Survivor: Election 2016 - The results show

In two previous posts, I tried to make the case that we are not being subjected to a normal presidential election cycle, but rather to a reality TV series. In my first post, I made the case that the central star of the show is the accomplished reality show host and participant Donald J. Trump. In my second post, I explained how in normal reality show arcs, the central character is subjected to a shocking "reveal" which throws the competition into disarray, driving the audience's emotional attachments into discombobulation. At the end of that second post, written 3 weeks ago, I wrote:

Producers of reality shows know there is one final ploy to release upon the audience - a dramatic invocation of the rules of the show - a kind of breaking of the fourth wall. Contestants get disqualified, the rules can suddenly be changed. Rumors abound that the call-in vote is somehow "fixed." Part of the drama lies in the capricious rules/no rules that can be invoked by the producers to apply one last shuffle of the deck. As long as the audience keeps watching.

Last Friday we indeed were subjected to just such a "unseen hand" changing the rules of the show's arc with the announcement that there might be a "foul" on the part of the lesser "Contestant B," the last contestant standing in the way of the far more controversial "Contestant A" winning the show. We've also seen charges that the national preferential vote is rigged, or that members of the audience who support "Contestant B" are not being able to register their vote.

Everything is playing out true-to-script for a reality show producer's wet dream - the highest-rated reality show final episode, the episode usually known as the "results show." Typically the "results show" is a reminiscence - the former contestants make brief appearances, the last standing contestants are trotted onstage, and the results are announced. Tears for one, joy for the other, and then a triumphant final ritual crowning of the victor. Catharsis.

So here it is the Friday before the results show finale. Fridays have become the day of dramatic shifts in the show's narrative (Friday October 7 - the "pussygrab" tape is revealed by the Washington Post; Friday, October 28 - FBI director Comey's letter to Congress). Are there any tricks left in the producer's bag to keep the audience riveted to the screen? Is there some unpredictable wild-card event that might be introduced into the narrative arc that is even beyond the grasp of the contestants and the producers? Have the producers created a behemoth of a mega-hit that even they cannot control?

So the final bit of drama could be a further breaking of the "fourth wall" - this time throwing not only the contestants but also the producers for a loop. On Survivor, it could be a medical episode hitting one of the contestants; on Big Brother, it could be unwanted interference from outside the hermetically sealed guest house. In our context, this could be a DDoS attack, a terrorist event, or a riveting act of violence.

There is certainly enough already in the narrative pipeline to keep the audience riveted. Already a full fifth of the total audience has already registered its preference. The online fanboy prediction sites have already issued their final prognostications. The consensus of all the prediction sites has the main character losing, but warn the audience that "anything can happen."

All of which makes for an unprecedented series finale - a results show that might either be a drawn-out bit of contrived drama, or a shocker that ends before midnight eastern time. Either way, the producers have delivered to their corporate owners a fantastic juggernaut. The audience is ready for one last orgiastic event - must see TV.

 Note: The reality show analysis continues here.

One Week Out - The Tightening

This has been a strange election. Wouldn't it end perfectly if Nate Silver, who got 49 out of 50 states right in 2008, and 50 out of 50 right in 2012, turns out to be all wrong this time, missing 4 or 5 states?

Using my simple 70% yardstick from fivethirtyeight.com's electoral map, nothing has changed from last week to this week. We're still at 272-179 with 87 battleground electoral votes. But the tightening trend places both CO (75.4% Clinton) and NH (72.7% Clinton) on the cusp of being reclassified as battleground.

Let's take a look at the current 80% map:

Compared to the 80% map from 2 weeks ago, Clinton has "lost" a number of states: CO, WI, PA, and NH. Trump has lost UT. Odds remain good that none of these states are "lost" - I am just showing what the floor for each candidate is likely to be. And it also gives a sense of where the final week's ad buys and candidate appearances ought to be.







Two weeks ago, I predicted 305-233. I am going to stick with that, though such an outcome might be the best the Democrats can hope for.

Two Week Out - Clinton Loses Ground

A week ago I made a prediction of a Clinton victory in a somewhat close electoral vote victory of 305-233, with a 2 point margin in the popular vote.
In the intervening week, both Florida and Nevada have fallen under the 70% fivethirtyeight yardstick, moving both into the tossup category. Here is the 70% map as of today:



A surprising diminished lead for Clinton, which looks pretty much like the 80% map of a week ago. I'm sticking with my prediction.

Three Weeks Out - First Prediction of US Election

I have a horrible track record predicting presidential elections. For as long as I have been blogging, I have been wrong, both in 2008 (when I got the right outcome, but with numbers that were woefully off) and 2012 (when I thought Romney would win).
So let's try again...
I now have a simple rule: if fivethirtyeight.com gives a state a better than 70% chance of going for a particular candidate, I give it to that candidate. At 3 weeks out, the chances of tectonic shifts in a state's results are approaching nil.
So let's look at this morning's 70% electoral map:

So even if Trump wins in all the tossups (Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina - as well as the single votes in Maine and Nebraska), Clinton wins 307-231.

OK, let's make this even tougher, let's look at an 80% or better map:

Note that three states move into the tossup column: Alaska, Nevada, and Florida. Even if all these former and new tossup states went to Trump, Clinton is the winner, 272-266. A squeaker.

Now let's slide the yardstick to 90% or better:

Now we can add South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine, and Georgia to the tossup column. This map represents the absolute floor for each candidate.

So here is my prediction: barring some cataclysmic late "October surprise" of tectonic proportions (the release of 33,000 emails, chock full of classified documents; a foreign disaster; a cataclysmic 9/11-level event; Clinton physically collapsing in the final debate; oh hell - maybe an alien "first contact") - Hillary Clinton has won this election.

Which means, which means...

Let us assume that Bannon, Conway et al, can read a map. Let us further assume that Trump can do the same. What this means is that tomorrow night's debate is his almost last chance. I say almost because I suspect there is one more ploy at his disposal - in the final 2-1/2 weeks Trump can purchase prime time chunks of network television as Ross Perot did in 1992. Maybe we'll have a foretaste of TrumpTV. Let's assume that all of these certain and potential upcoming performances are desperate, no-holds-barred, unconventional presentations. I don't think it will matter.

The concrete has set, the cake has been baked, and the train has left the station.

The only questions now are the size of the electoral vote victory, and the margin of the popular vote win. My guess: 305-233 (less than the 2012 margin of victory); 47-45% (about the same 2 point margin as in 2012).

Be certain that I got it wrong yet again.

Actually, I hope for a 1964-style blowout (486-52; +20 margin in the popular vote). Maybe a Clinton-Dole 1996 result (379-159; +9 margin) is more realistic? (h/t @soverytired) The only reason I won't go with a blowout scenario is the "Brexit" factor - I am convinced that a sizable number of poll respondents are not answering honestly. 

How did we get here?

If you had told me in 2014 that I would be writing an editorial for a local newspaper on behalf of Hillary Clinton for President, I would have offered to make a bet against you.

I, like many sentient adults who lived through the 1990s, suffer from Clinton fatigue. Make no mistake, I voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996.

In my mind, his policies were largely positive, despite the triangular centrism of his social policy. His stewardship of foreign and domestic policy was admirable.

But it was all the muck, the back story, and the scandals, that drove me to fatigue. The ugly persecution of Clinton and his ridiculous impeachment by Congress was exhausting. He didn't launch the impeachment, but his predatory behavior in the Oval Office started the avalanche of Republican hypocrisy which ensued.

Hilary had her back story also. I've always assumed most of it is true.

There certainly was a "vast right-wing conspiracy" out to get her and her husband, even now 20 years later. Some voters may be just now getting to know the Clintons. But for us baby boomers - we already know the story.

So I had enough of the Clintons. In 2014 I said that if the Republicans pick Bush and the Democrats picked Clinton, I would move to Canada.

The sclerotic Democratic party and President Obama together could come up with nothing better than Hillary Clinton, the second-most disliked person in American politics. But the Republicans were in for a surprise. Instead of "the smart Bush" with his endorsements and his $250 million war chest, the Republicans were "primaried" into anointing the most disliked person in the history of American politics as their candidate.

He strides the podium like his mustachioed predecessor, he speaks of dark global conspiracies, and he promises to jail his opponent. He's not Republican, he's not Democrat. He's simply a brand promoter, a man who needs to hear and see his name. That's what celebrities crave.

In the inchoate gobbledygook of his political stances - all of which can change on the dime of cynical convenience - there is nothing but fascism. Donald Trump might very well be the last President of the United States.

What about a protest vote instead? For me it is simple, particularly after the debacle of the Florida recall in 2000. Any vote that even remotely lessens the popular majority of Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump is a vote to ensure that the dolchstosslegende will survive after November 8. The future of our democracy remains locked up in the balance of powers between the Executive, the Legislative, and the Judicial branches, not in the ravings of a preening self-promoter. The only way a citizen can put a stake through the heart of American fascism is to vote for Hillary Clinton.